Guardian Essential poll: Labor’s housing and tax changes fail to win over voters as support for One Nation swells

Just 25% of Australians polled back the budget while the majority believe the government has fallen short of expectations over the past year

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Labor’s key budget measures on housing and tax have failed to win over Australians, with only a third or fewer voters backing negative gearing and CGT changes – and many holding significant doubts the changes will make things easier for first home buyers, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.

Demonstrating the challenge Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers are facing in selling and explaining the budget, just 25% of the more than 1,000 Australians polled said they backed the budget, while 56% believed the Labor government had fallen short of expectations in the year since the May 2025 election. At the same time, the prime minister’s net approval slumped seven points in a month while One Nation’s primary vote sat just one point behind Labor’s.